How to benchmark travel in 2022
Remember that moment in 2020 when we thought the impact of a pandemic would only last a few months?
As we approach the two-year anniversary of the global lockdown and reflect on its changes to the industry, we have to ask ourselves, as travel marketers and data specialists, what is now the most suitable reference point going forward?
Typically, we measure year-on-year to note growth and compare key periods of seasonality, but, of course, for the most part of 2021, 2020 served no use - especially when travel businesses paused their advertising. So, for the past year, we extended that one-year comparison to two.
As we cross over that two-year threshold, we’ve had to ask ourselves what’s the best picture to paint now? Every month Accord release their Travel Market Update - collating industry traffic, client dashboard and spend data, as well as headline news and common creative themes. It’s been a vital companion over the last year, with the overall story constantly shifting month-on-month. But, approaching this month’s edition, it hit us - should we still be looking back to 2019 for clarity? Or is it time to mark 2021 as a representation of, dare we say it, ‘the new normal’ and a better benchmark in a market where the disruptive dust from COVID-19 has by no means settled?
Let’s put our options on the table.
Well, to some extent, 2019 is now out of date. That was three whole years ago and, arguably, the world, with or without the onset of COVID-19, is a different place. Digitally we’re savvier and culturally we’re much more conscious of our environmental impact. COVID-19, which still has not waved us goodbye, has also shown us new behaviours and deal-breakers that are paramount to customers when choosing where to go on holiday - flexibility being the big one.
We learned a lot about these changes in our research white paper, ‘The Great Escape’, which investigated the shifting traveller’s path-to-purchase. We found that consumers felt as though the ‘fun’ has been sucked out of the planning stage and, as a result, there was hesitation before booking. But there was also evidence that people were more likely to be booking holidays closer to their travel date (around 2-3 months) and less likely to be booking 6+ months prior.
We’ve also seen clients report that some consumers, after years of disruption, are hanging their hat on ‘the big one’ for their next overseas holiday. A blow-out style escape in 2022 that truly makes up for lost time. Further, with remote working here to stay, a new trend of working-from-holiday (WFH) has emerged, encouraging people to take longer breaks, with bookings on sites like Airbnb being extended to allow people to book for three and four-week getaways more easily.
So, will these behaviours stay for good? We must consider 2022 is no ‘normal’ year either. Though we’re almost certain that it won’t be as disruptive as the last two; seasonality has most definitely shifted. Just when we thought we were returning to regular levels at the end of last year, the Omicron variant caused a storm and so, January - the usual peak booking month - took a hit confidence-wise. February delivered a new peak, with brands like On the Beach reporting a 50% increase on 2019 booking levels.
So 2022 didn’t kick off the way that we hoped and perhaps it is too soon to tell if it will be the year where traditional seasonal highs and lows return. It begs the question - will they ever?
What we believe to be the best move going forward is benchmarking against both or, as we like to call it, a case of ‘bothism’. Luckily, as part of our stringent reporting and insight gathering, we have noted every consumer and brand reaction, from ever-changing travel restrictions to the opening and closing of borders in popular holiday destinations. So, we will caveat our insights with this information and note past instances against any future potential bumps in the road. In fact, what this whole period has shown us is just how important it is to weave external disruptions and cultural changes into our data stories. Again, it all comes back to having a human touch and an eye fixed on the bigger picture. The way we have pivoted our insights has become our new norm - I guess we have this strange period to thank for that.
We will continue to review on a month-on-month basis to note short-term growth and monitor against both 2019 and 2021 on a wider level to see whether traditional peaks are taking shape again and whether 2022 really is the great bounce-back year. As we can see from Market Research specialists Mintel’s Travel Tracker, booking intent had practically caught up with pre-pandemic levels in February but bookings over the typical peak season were lower.
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2018-22
The real telling will be in 2023. Following a (fingers crossed) proper Christmas and a variant-free January, we might be able to make better conclusions of what regular trading looks like again. Of course, it’s not just consumers who are in a different position to three years ago, brands are too. Marketing objectives and KPIs are not what they used to be and so the comparison is not entirely valuable in that sense - it’s not apples for apples. Therefore, it’s never been more important to use a measurement framework to know exactly what your targets are and how they support the ever-changing bigger picture. That’s something we can help you with.
Eloise Pates
Contributor
